Thoughts on MLB Hot Stove

It's time that I offer up my thoughts on where I think the top MLB free agents will sign as well as those players who are involved in trade rumors:

Toronto Blue Jays Pitcher Roy Halladay-The Blue Jays ace continues to be the subject of numerous trade rumors ever since the trade deadline last July.  Teams that have shown varying degrees of interest at what point or another include the Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, Rays, and Yankees.  The Angels are reported to have offered up a package that includes Pitcher Joe Saunders, Shortstop Erick Aybar and minor league Outfielder Peter Bourjos.  There has also been speculation that Toronto has asked about minor league Pitcher Trevor Reckling in discussions.  Given what's been reported by various media outlets about the situation including Halladay's desire to be on a winning team, his no trade clause,  his desire to play on the East Coast close to his home in Florida, and the deadline he gave the Blue Jays to trade him by Spring Training, I think it will be hard for the Blue Jays to trade him for a number of reasons. 

1. New GM Alex Anthopoulos and the Jays' front office is probably asking for the world in return for Halladay in any trade offers for him.
 
2. Many of the teams that could be involved might be reluctant to give up so much for a guy of Halladay's caliber in return
 
3. Another thing to consider is that any team who tries to trade for Halladay will probably have to negotiate a contract extension with a new team since he has one year remaining on his current contract for $15.75 million and will be a free agent after the 2010 season.

Prediction: Given all that, other teams may want to consider cheaper alternatives as they get ready for the 2010 season.  The bottom line is unless the Jays are willing to lower their trade demands, Halladay will be a Blue Jay come April.  That doesn't mean he will be a Blue Jay by July 31.  Stay tuned.

Los Angeles Angels Ptcher John Lackey-Probably the number one free agent pitcher in this year's market.  Teams interested include the New York Mets, Seattle Mariners, possibly the Texas Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees, and the incumbent Angels.  Lackey's agent Steve Hilliard is asking for 6 years at $17-$18 million annually.  I think Lackey is not worth that much for 6 years and will have to settle for less.

New York Mets-GM Omar Minaya figures to have another busy offseason leading up to 2010.  The Mets will look to bounce back from a disastrous year in 2009 that saw a plethora of injuries to key players like Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Jose Reyes.  An attractive piece to the Mets puzzle could be that Lackey would be reunited with former teammate Francisco Rodriguez.

Seattle Mariners-This is the most intriguing team involved in the Lackey discussions.  They have $50 million to spend for the 2010 campaign by getting rid of overpriced contracts like Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre over the past few years.  They have already been active this winter by signing third baseman Chone Figgins from the division rival Angels to a 4 year, $36 million deal with an option for a 5th year that could make the deal worth $45 million.  As is the case with the New York Mets, Lackey could be compelled to join forces with Chone Figgins.

Texas Rangers-Lackey is a native of Abilene, Texas and may have a desire to return home to play baseball.  He also supposedly owns a suite at the new Cowboys Stadium next door to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.  The Rangers, however are in the middle of being sold and may not have the money to sign Lackey to a long term deal.  Unless the ownership situation gets resolved in the near future, I don't see the Rangers as a serious contender for Lackey.

Boston Red Sox-As one of the top organizations in baseball, the Red Sox are one of a few teams who always seem to have money to spend and they spend it wisely.  Like the Yankees, they always expect to contend year in and year out for a championship.  They're almost always in the mix for the top free agents on the markets each year.  You can also bet that they're not happy with the Yankees winning the World Series last year.  I could see them possibly signing Lackey in their competition of one-upmanship with the Yankees.

New York Yankees-They're coming off a season when they were the best team in baseball in which they were 103-59 in the regular season and won their 27th World Series championship.  They have the ability to pay the most money of any team in baseball for its players,  and an environment where nothing less than a season culminating in a championship is considered a failure.  Not to mention having the opportunity to play alongside some of the greatest players in the game today including Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.  What is there not to like about the Yankees?  Sure, there will be those of you who say that the Yankees are bad for baseball with their mega spending seemingly each offseason making them capable of signing the top free agents, but if I were given the opportunity to play for the most storied franchise in baseball in a city that never sleeps, I would definitely think about it.

Los Angeles Angels-As a fan of the Angels, I'm hoping the Angels do everything in their power to re-sign Lackey.  Talks are still ongoing and Lackey recently rejected a 4 year offer worth about $72 million.  In his time as GM, Tony Reagins has a history of making huge deals over the past two seasons including Torii Hunter and trading for Mark Teixeira and Scott Kazmir.  The thing I find fascinating about Reagins is his ability to make big deals very quickly and with very little attention, which follows the pattern of how the Angels make their moves: quickly and with very little attention.

Prediction: Call me a homer, but depending on what happens with Halladay, I think Lackey ends up with the Angels.  If the Angels end up trading for Halladay, Lackey will go to one of the other teams mentioned.  If that happens, I say it's going to be the New York Mets.

Update: Ken Rosenthal of Foxsports.com is reporting that Lackey had a physical with the Boston Red Sox on Monday, which means a deal could be on the horizon.  So much for my prediction.  This is not good news for the Angels, having already lost Chone Figgins to the Mariners.

St. Louis Cardinals Outfielder Matt Holliday-Holliday is represnted by super agent Scott Boras.  Boras is known for drawing out negotiations for his clients to get the most money possible.  This creates a bidding war among teams that can drag on for months at a time.  Holliday's case is no different, but up to this point there hasn't been too much buzz concerning Holliday.  We know the Angels have said they won't get involved following the Mark Teixeira debacle of last season.  The incumbent Cardinals are among the teams interested in Holliday's services as they have offered a deal, of which the details are unknown at this point and are anxiously awaiting Holliday's response.  Beyond those teams, who knows what other teams could get involved.

Prediction: Who knows? You're guess is as good as mine.  I will say that depending on where Jason Bay lands, expect the Red Sox to be in the mix.

Boston Red Sox Outfielder Jason Bay-Bay is represented by Joe Urbon.  Teams reported to be interested include the incumbent Red Sox, Angels, Mariners, and Mets.  We know the Red Sox have offered a 4 year $60 million deal, which Bay has rejected, and the Mets have offered a deal believed to be worth about $65 million.  Many baseball insiders believe Bay is seeking a 5 year deal for whoever offers the most money.  As for the other teams involved.

Angels-Tracy Ringolsby of Foxsports.com was the first person to report that the Angels had opened contract talks with Bay, which they have since refuted and don't seem to be involved in the negotiations currently.  I would have to agree with Tony Reagins and Angels manager Mike Scioscia, who have said that there are more pressing needs for that team right now given that they have six free agents of their own to make decisions on, including John Lackey.

Mariners-As mentioned before, GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners have been aggresive in free agency by signing Chone Figgins and have money to spend and they also need a power hitting outfielder.  Bay also currently has an offseason home in Seattle and is from Vancouver, British Columbia.  The thing with Bay is he is not one of the best defensive outfielders in the game today and that could be disastrous in spacious Safeco Field.  With that being said if the Mariners were somehow able to land Bay and Lackey in addition to Figgins, then there could be a new favorite to win the AL West, as much as it pains me to say it.

Prediction-Just because it would be intriguing, this is my boldest prediction. I say Bay ends up with the Mariners because he lives there and is from the area.  It would also provide competition for the division rival Angels which would make things very interesting.

So there you have it.  Let me know what you think and we'll see how accurate my predictions are.  I will update the list as news breaks.

Photos courtesy: Wikimedia Commons
Keith Allison under CC-BY license
SD Dirk under CC-BY license
shgmom56 under CC-SA license
Eric Kilby under CC-SA license